One number, two sides of the table.
Rigorlytics' projected AAV for each free agent — informed by production, position market, age and Spotrac's model. The number before a single deal was signed.
The average-per-year value the player actually signed for. The gap between the two is the market surprise — and where the intelligence lives.
Market ran hot — the player beat the number. Leverage sat with the agent.
The projection held. A fair, efficient deal for both sides.
Market cooled — value was on the table. The edge sat with the team.
How the projections held up across the class.
Which markets ran hot, which ran cold.
Where the player beat the number — the leverage plays.
Where value fell to the team — injuries, a thin market and one-year deals.
Where the model and the market agreed within 10%.
Projected vs. actual AAV for all 72+ free agents tracked. Filter by position.
| Player | Pos | Team | Projected | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | QB | Colts | $40M | $44M | +10% |
| Malik Willis | QB | Dolphins | $31.5M | $22.5M | -29% |
| Zach Wilson | QB | Saints | $6M | $1.4M | -77% |
| Player | Pos | Team | Projected | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | RB | Jets | $12M | $14.3M | +19% |
| Kenneth Walker | RB | Chiefs | $10M | $14.4M | +43% |
| Travis Etienne | RB | Saints | $9M | $13M | +44% |
| Rachaad White | RB | Commanders | $7M | $2M | -71% |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | Cardinals | $6.5M | $6.1M | -6% |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | Steelers | $5M | $6.1M | +22% |
| Player | Pos | Team | Projected | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | WR | Cowboys | $30M | $27.3M | -9% |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | 49ers | $23.8M | $4.1M | -83% |
| Jauan Jennings | WR | Vikings | $22.6M | $8M | -65% |
| Alec Pierce | WR | Colts | $21M | $29M | +38% |
| Mike Evans | WR | 49ers | $20.5M | $20.1M | -2% |
| Christian Kirk | WR | 49ers | $18M | $6M | -67% |
| Wan'dale Robinson | WR | Titans | $15M | $19.5M | +30% |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | Patriots | $13M | $17M | +31% |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | Seahawks | $12M | $17M | +42% |
| Player | Pos | Team | Projected | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | TE | Falcons | $20M | $15M | -25% |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | Eagles | $16.5M | $7M | -58% |
| David Njoku | TE | Chargers | $15M | $3M | -80% |
| Isaiah Likely | TE | Giants | $14M | $13.3M | -5% |
| Cade Otton | TE | Bucaneers | $12M | $10M | -17% |
| Chig Okonkwo | TE | Commanders | $11M | $10M | -9% |
| Noah Fant | TE | Saints | $10M | $4.4M | -56% |
| Tyler Higbee | TE | Rams | $9M | $4M | -56% |
| Player | Pos | Team | Projected | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teven Jenkins * | OG | Browns | $40M | $3M | — |
| Tyler Linderbaum | C | Raiders | $21M | $27M | +29% |
| Braden Smith | OT | Texans | $17.5M | $10M | -43% |
| Jonah Williams | OT | Cardinals | $15M | $1.4M | -91% |
| Connor McGovern | C | Bills | $15M | $13M | -13% |
| Wyatt Teller | OG | Texans | $14.2M | $8M | -44% |
| Zion Johnson | OG | Browns | $14M | $16.5M | +18% |
| Dylan Parham | OG | Jets | $13.3M | $8M | -40% |
| Ethan Pocic | C | Ravens | $13M | $3.2M | -75% |
| Cade Mays | C | Lions | $12M | $8.3M | -31% |
| Luke Fortner | C | Panthers | $11M | $4.8M | -57% |
| Sean Rhyan | C | Packers | $10M | $11M | +10% |
| Trey Pipkins | OT | Chargers | $7.5M | $5M | -33% |
| Jermaine Elumunor | OT | Giants | $7M | $13M | +86% |
| Ed Ingram | OG | Texans | $7M | $12.5M | +79% |
| Player | Pos | Team | Projected | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Hendrickson | Edge | Ravens | $26M | $28M | +8% |
| Khalil Mack | Edge | Chargers | $18M | $18M | 0% |
| Jaelan Phillips | DT | Panthers | $17.3M | $30M | +73% |
| Odafe Oweh | Edge | Commanders | $17M | $25M | +47% |
| Kwity Paye | Edge | Raiders | $14M | $16M | +14% |
| AJ Espenesa | Edge | Browns | $12M | $5M | -58% |
| Logan Hall | DT | Texans | $12M | $3.5M | -71% |
| Roy Lopez | DT | Bears | $5M | $11.5M | +130% |
| Da'shawn Hand | DT | Falcons | $4M | $3M | -25% |
| Player | Pos | Team | Projected | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Lloyd | LB | Panthers | $24M | $15M | -38% |
| Quay Walker | LB | Raiders | $14M | $13.5M | -4% |
| Nakobe Dean * | LB | Raiders | $13M | $12M | — |
| Devin Bush | LB | Bears | $10M | $10M | 0% |
| Jadeveon Clowney | LB | Texans | $8M | $5.5M | -31% |
| Alex Anzalone | LB | Buccaneers | $7M | $8.5M | +21% |
| Player | Pos | Team | Projected | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tariq Woolen | CB | Eagles | $19M | $15M | -21% |
| Jamel Dean | CB | Steelers | $17M | $12.2M | -28% |
| Greg Newsome | CB | Giants | $14M | $10M | -29% |
| Roger McCreary | CB | Lions | $13M | $1.4M | -89% |
| Alontae Taylor | CB | Titans | $12M | $20M | +67% |
| Cam Taylor-Britt | CB | Colts | $9M | $1.4M | -84% |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | CB | Buccaneers | $8M | $1.2M | -85% |
| Nahshon Wright | CB | Jets | $7M | $5.5M | -21% |
| Montaric Brown | CB | Jaguars | $7M | $10.6M | +51% |
| Player | Pos | Team | Projected | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Cook | S | Bengals | $16M | $13.4M | -16% |
| Jalen Thompson | S | Cowboys | $12M | $11M | -8% |
| Andre Cisco | S | Jets | $8.5M | $2.5M | -71% |
| Jaquan Brisker | S | Steelers | $6M | $5.5M | -8% |
| Geno Stone | S | Bills | $5M | $1.4M | -72% |
| Dane Belton | S | Jets | $5M | $4M | -20% |
| Reed Blankenship | S | Texans | $4M | $8.2M | +106% |
| Player | Pos | Team | Projected | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aubrey | K | Cowboys | $7.5M | $5.8M | -23% |
| Eddy Pineiro | K | 49ers | $5M | $4.2M | -15% |
* Two source rows with inconsistent projected entries (Teven Jenkins, Nakobe Dean) are shown but excluded from scoring.
Three tables, three reads.
Only 20 of 72 free agents beat their projection. Pass rush, running back and a handful of ascending names set the hot corners of the market — the rest signed at or below the number.
Tight end, corner and receiver all signed well under projection. Disciplined teams found starters below market while others paid the early-window premium.
The biggest shortfalls came from injuries, late-market signings and one-year 'prove-it' deals — not weak production. The market rewarded certainty.