Research
Testing the model against
the real market
the real market
Studies that run Rigorlytics projections against actual outcomes to measure where the model holds and where it breaks.
Published studies
August 2026 · NFL
Projected vs. actual: how did the market price the 2026 NFL free agent class?
Seventy-two free agents were run through the projected market value model before signing, then measured against the deals they actually got. Includes a GM, agent, and player view of every contract.
-21%
Market vs. model
72
Players
January 2026 · NBA
How accurate is Rigorlytics at projecting NBA contract value?
Ten 2025 free agents were run through the fair market value model before signing, then measured against the deals they actually got. Includes a front office and player view of every contract.
+10.7%
Avg deviation
10
Players
6 of 9
Favored player
Read the study →
More studies in progress
NFL contract valuation and fantasy projection accuracy are next.