NBA Front Office Tools
Contract alerts
Recent signings analyzed for value
Anthony Davis ยท LAL
Fair value
3yr / $186M extension
Production percentile matches the rate. Health history is the primary risk factor on this deal.
Devin Booker ยท PHX
Underpaid
4yr / $224M max
95th percentile scorer at $56M per year. Value exceeds salary by 12 to 18 percent on efficiency models.
Bradley Beal ยท PHX
Overpaid
5yr / $251M supermax
60th percentile production at $50M per year with injury concerns. Worst value contract in the league.
Front office principles from Rigorlytics
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Pay for the future
Contracts should price projected production over the deal term, not past performance that may not repeat.
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Age curves matter
Most athletes peak between 26 and 29. Long deals signed at 30 plus carry significant decline risk.
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Surplus value wins
Championship teams are built on players producing above their salary, not on paying market rate for stars.
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Flexibility is an asset
Cap space and tradeable contracts have real option value. Avoid deals that eliminate future maneuverability.