Ten 2025 free agents were run through the Rigorlytics fair market value model before they signed. This is what the market actually paid them, and what the gap says about how contracts get priced.
Each free agent received a three-tier projection: a risk-adjusted floor, a fair market value baseline, and a ceiling reflecting market upside. Average annual value was the primary metric because it normalizes across contract lengths.
Fair market value is the benchmark used throughout this study. A signed contract landing within 10% of that figure is fair to both sides. Outside that band, one party captured the surplus.
A contract that looks like an overpay to a front office looks like a win to the player who signed it. Both columns describe the same number.
| Player | Fair value | Actual AAV | Variance | Front office | Player |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving PG | $25.0M | $39.7M | +58.8% | Overpaid | Won |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker G/W | $10.0M | $15.5M | +55.0% | Overpaid | Won |
| Dennis Schröder PG | $11.0M | $14.8M | +34.5% | Overpaid | Won |
| Davion Mitchell PG | $10.0M | $12.0M | +20.0% | Overpaid | Won |
| Naz Reid C | $22.0M | $25.0M | +13.6% | Overpaid | Won |
| Jonathan Kuminga F | $22.0M | $24.3M | +10.2% | Overpaid | Won |
| Ty Jerome G | $10.0M | $9.3M | −7.0% | Fair | Fair |
| Josh Giddey PG/W | $30.0M | $25.0M | −16.7% | Value | Underpaid |
| Cam Thomas SG | $22.0M | $6.0M | −72.7% | Value | Underpaid |
| Malik Beasley SG | $18.0M | No deal | — | N/A | Lost all |
Six of nine signed contracts transferred surplus to the player. Only one landed inside the fair band. That is a decisively player-favorable market, and the pattern in the misses is consistent: box-score production explained less than role scarcity, playoff translation, and how badly one specific team needed one specific archetype.
Every overpay traced to context outside the numbers. Every accurate projection came from a player whose role was unambiguous. Valuation models estimate the market reliably, but urgency, leverage, and risk tolerance explain the variance.
Sixteen slides covering methodology, player-by-player breakdowns, role valuation trends, and applications for front offices and agents.